![]() ![]() The observation is not about supply shortages but instead about changes in how an advanced economy creates prosperity: it is becoming less dependent on material goods. Meanwhile, total demand for materials globally is still growing, driven by China, India and other developing economies that have not reached peak stuff. ![]() This applies widely across categories as well - the main categories of material consumption are biomass, metals, non-metal minerals and fossil fuels, and all categories show sharp falls in material intensity. ![]() In fact, the divergence is very strong, and in 2018 UK GDP was 49% less material intensive than 2001’s peak (GDP is c.30% larger in real terms whilst material use is down c.30%). The trend is pretty clear - economic growth no longer requires more stuff. ![]() Importantly, there is a peak in demand for material in these economies even as they continue to grow. These figures represent a total view of material consumption. The best indicator is known as the ‘material footprint’ of a country or region, which includes the materials used in manufacturing, food processing and construction activities domestically as well as the tonnes of materials extracted overseas and imported as finished goods (see Figure 1). Peak stuff is not widely discussed in logistics because, on the face of it, it would not be good news for businesses that are largely driven by tonnage however, peak stuff is widespread, and logistics and supply chain businesses must find ways to grow despite this trend. Experts have noted a sharp decline in tonnes of material used relative to gross domestic product (GDP), a trend which peaked in the early 2000s as observed in the US by Jesse Ausubel and Paul Waggoner and in the UK by Chris Goodall in 2011, and as updated in 2019 by Andrew McAfee in his book “More from Less”. It consists of reducing the use of materials to generate prosperity as these economies reach ‘peak stuff’. Since around the turn of the century, a general trend known as ‘dematerialisation’ has persisted throughout advanced economies. ![]()
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